Where Are the Most Progressive Areas in Pittsburgh
Progressive Voter Index (PVI)
Less progressive
More progressive
Based on results of local ballot measures from 2018 to 2020.
For decades, national election results from San Francisco show a deeply blue city. But a new Chronicle analysis using data from citywide elections reveals that there are actually many shades of blue that color the city's neighborhoods.
Using data on San Francisco ballot measures, we calculated a score for each of the city's voting precincts — small geographic areas typically used for elections. The scores measure the relative "progressiveness" of an area, with higher scores denoting more progressive precincts.
The scores, when mapped, reveal a donut pattern. The most progressive precincts cluster near the city center and include neighborhoods like the Haight, the Mission and Bernal Heights. As you move away from the inner core, the scores indicate more moderate-voting precincts, with the least progressive areas in Portola, Visitacion Valley and near Lake Merced.
To calculate the scores, we combined precinct-level results from 14 local ballot measures from elections from 2018 through 2020. We chose the most politically divisive measures related to fiscal, social, land use and governmental issues, which are topics often at the center of the left-right debate in San Francisco. Using a technique called principal component analysis, we combined the referendum results into two indices, which we then summed and scaled from 0 to 100. These scores make up the Progressive Voter Index (PVI).
There is a decades-long history to the PVI. Scores were first calculated in 1999 by San Francisco State University professor emeritus Richard DeLeon. The methodology was passed down to former political consultant David Latterman, who updated the scores in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015. For the current iteration produced by the Chronicle, Latterman and policy researcher Alex Lantsberg helped select the 14 referendums analyzed.
The updated scores show a largely unchanged political landscape. According to Latterman, the same small pockets show up as most or least progressive.
But some neighborhoods have shifted politically. Most notably, the southeastern neighborhoods, including Bayview Hunters Point and Visitacion Valley, grew more moderate since PVI scores were last calculated in 2015.
According to experts, the PVI scores are largely explained by two factors. The first is homeownership. According to political strategist Kate Maeder, the less progressive areas correlate with more single family homes — and consequently, more homeowners. In contrast, neighborhoods near the geographic city center, like the Mission, are mostly made up of renters.
The second attribute that correlates with the scores is demographics, which may also explain the PVI changes in certain neighborhoods. Over the last decade, gentrification and increased housing costs have forced Asians out of the city center and into the more-affordable outer neighborhoods and Blacks out of the city altogether.
In 2010, roughly a third of Bayview Hunters Point residents were Black. Today, they account for less than a quarter — an eight percentage-point decline — and Asians make up the largest racial group in the neighborhood. This out-migration of Blacks and in-migration of Asians may account for the PVI changes in Bayview Hunters Point.
Racial and ethnic makeup of San Francisco neighborhoods
Click on a race/ethnicity to change the map. Mouse over a neighborhood to see details.
Asian, Black and white do not include those who identify as Hispanic.
David Lee, executive director of the Chinese American Voters Education Committee, said Asians tend to vote more moderately than other nonwhite voters. He says this is generally the case on issues related to housing and small businesses because of the relatively high share of Asian homeowners and business owners — the Census Bureau's 2019 estimates show over 40% of San Francisco homeowners are Asian, and Lee estimates that Asians make up between 30% and 40% of the city's small business owners.
But Asians are far from conservative. When it comes to San Francisco politics, we're talking about degrees of more or less progressive, said Lee. For instance, Proposition C in the 2018 general election authorized the city to fund homelessness services by taxing certain businesses. The most progressive parts of the city had over 70% of residents voting to pass the measure. Predominantly-Asian areas, on the other hand, still passed the measure — just not overwhelmingly so, like other neighborhoods.
But according to University of San Francisco professor James Taylor, the racial composition of Bayview Hunters Point doesn't fully account for the PVI changes because Blacks and Asians are not always in ideological disagreement. He points to the 2010 California proposition on legalizing marijuana, where Blacks and Asians voted the most conservatively in the state.
Moreover, Black voters don't always align with the progressive side. For 2018's Proposition H, which would have equipped San Francisco police officers with tasers, the city's inner core overwhelmingly voted against it. But according to Taylor, Black community members were in support of the referendum, and results from Bayview Hunters Point reflected that sentiment.
Results of San Francisco local ballot measures used in the Progressive Voter Index
Click on a ballot measure to see results on the map
The changing ideology of neighborhoods can have big implications for local politics, particularly in regards to supervisorial districts. The neighborhoods that changed the most are in District 10, which includes progressive-leaning Dogpatch and Potrero Hill, as well as more moderate Bayview Hunters Point and Visitacion Valley. The district is now the second least progressive district, according to its median PVI score, and less progressive than District two, which includes some of the city's wealthiest neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Russian Hill and the Marina.
Progressive Voter Index scores by San Francisco supervisorial district and current supervisor
Each dot is a precinct and its Progressive Voter Index score
According to Corey Cook, a political science researcher who used the PVI to analyze years of election results, the PVI consistently reveals the political dynamics of the city. Previous iterations have correlated with results from mayoral elections, most citywide ballot measures and supervisorial races.
"The PVI has been the best tool to understand what's going on in San Francisco politics," said Cook. "It's a consistent and reliable measure of how issues are divided, the persistence of the moderate-progressive divide and residential voting patterns."
According to political strategist Maeder, PVI scores can help with campaign targeting. A politician running for citywide or district races can prioritize efforts, like canvassing and targeted mailing, to areas that most align with their ideology. "If you have limited campaign resources, you would look at a map like this and target where you would want to go first," said Maeder.
But Latterman cautions that the scores are not always perfectly predictive. Though they often correlate with citywide election results, they are best for understanding the past, not the future, and the ideology of a district's supervisor doesn't always match their constituents.
"People will often comment on how candidates don't fit the district because their ideological position doesn't fit with the makeup of a district, but there's much more to winning an election than a candidate's ideology. You still have to have a vision, have good policy ideas, run a good campaign," said Latterman. "No one should decide to run based on comparing their ideology to the PVI scores of their district."
Progressive Voter Index scores for San Francisco precincts
Link to download the data is below the table
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Where Are the Most Progressive Areas in Pittsburgh
Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2021/sf-progressive-voter-index/